Americans are voting in crucial midterm elections that will determine whether President Donald Trump retains a Republican-controlled Congress for the final two years of his administration or faces a Democratic majority.
With all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships being contested, the elections could reshape the balance of power in Washington. Republicans currently control both chambers by narrow margins, while opinion polls point to closely fought races across several key states.
According to American statistician Nate Silver and the FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, which factors in poll quality, sample size and recency, the latest polling averages show tight margins in several Senate contests.
In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 3.3 percentage points, with 49.8 per cent against 46.5 per cent. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek holds a narrow 1.1-point advantage over Republican Ashley Hinson, polling at 47.7 per cent against 46.7 per cent.
Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Roger Marshall by four points in Kansas, with 49.9 per cent against 45.8 per cent. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown holds a three-point lead over Republican Jon Husted, polling at 48.4 per cent against 45.4 per cent.
Republicans enter Election Day with 218 seats in the House against 214 Democrats, alongside one independent and two vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach 218.
The Senate is currently divided 53-47 in favour of Republicans. Democrats would need to gain four seats to secure a majority, while Republicans can lose three and retain control with Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote. Of the 35 Senate seats being contested, 22 are currently held by Republicans.
The outcome will have significant implications for Trump's remaining time in office. A Democratic-controlled House would give the party's committee chairs greater scope to investigate the administration and increase its influence over federal spending, including funding for the conflict involving Iran.
A Democratic Senate would also give Chuck Schumer's party control over the confirmation process for judges and Cabinet nominees. However, Democrats face a difficult Senate map, with several seats up for election in states Trump won by double-digit margins.
Polling stations in the first states are scheduled to close at 6 pm Eastern time. Results in closely contested races, including Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation and California's extended counting process, could take several days to finalise.
The uncertainty surrounding the elections has also coincided with a decline in precious metal prices. Silver futures fell more than three per cent on Tuesday as investors reduced their exposure ahead of the election outcome and reassessed the outlook for interest rates.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver futures for December delivery dropped Rs 6,168, or 3.36 per cent, to Rs 1,77,611 per kilogram.
In international markets, Comex silver futures for December delivery fell below $50 per ounce, declining $1.82, or 3.58 per cent, to $49.07.
The decline came as investors weighed uncertainty surrounding the elections, interest rate expectations and persistent inflation concerns, said Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at brokerage firm Lemonn. He added that silver remained more vulnerable following its sharp correction in October.
Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research at Kotak Neo, said the fall appeared to reflect macroeconomic pressures and broad market deleveraging rather than a deterioration in the metal's long-term fundamentals.
Elevated oil prices, firm US economic data and inflation concerns have strengthened expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer. This has supported Treasury yields and reduced the appeal of precious metals, she said.
Chainwala also pointed to the correction in technology stocks, noting silver's exposure to industrial sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence infrastructure, consumer electronics and solar manufacturing.
Silver has also underperformed gold in recent weeks. The gold-to-silver ratio has risen above 79, its highest level in nearly a year, indicating a preference for gold amid heightened uncertainty, she added.
The elections are taking place against a challenging economic backdrop for American households and financial markets.
The average US retail price of regular petrol stands at $4.17 per gallon, down from $4.29 on October 26 and $4.48 on September 25. The commodity price of petrol has also fallen 8.1 per cent to $2.90 per gallon, its lowest level since early August.
The commodity price had climbed from $2.99 on August 27 to $3.59 on September 23 before reversing course. The latest decline has also fed through to retail prices, although taxes and profit margins mean consumers pay more than the underlying commodity price.
US stock markets have also come under pressure. The benchmark S&P 500 fell another 0.5 per cent in the latest session, following a 1.8 per cent decline on Friday, taking it to its lowest level since July 31. The index is down 3.6 per cent from its October 6 peak, although it remains 8.6 per cent above its level in the week before the Iran war began in late February and 14.4 per cent above its lowest point during the conflict in late March.
The correction has also taken some of the shine off the artificial intelligence boom.
Meanwhile, September data showed personal income rising 0.2 per cent, while personal expenditure increased 0.5 per cent. The personal savings rate fell by 0.2 percentage points from August to 3.8 per cent, its lowest level since October 2022.
The US economy recorded annualised GDP growth of 3.4 per cent in the September quarter, equivalent to 0.85 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth. This was an increase from the annualised growth rate of 2.2 per cent recorded in the June quarter.
With control of Congress, economic conditions and market sentiment all featuring in the election debate, the results will shape the political and policy landscape for the remainder of Trump's term.
(With agency inputs from ANI, AP, The Conversation via PTI)